{"product":"TVALGO Third Eye","free":true,"loginRequired":false,"mode":"official-snapshot","snapshotAt":"2026-11-15T23:00:51Z","snapshotAtPkt":"16 Nov 2026, 4:00 AM PKT","honesty":"These panels are a server-side snapshot of official public records, not a live wire. Headlines and summaries are short TVALGO write-ups in our own words, drawn only from official text. Where a trader-context section appears, it is labelled as a scenario, not a forecast and not a recommendation. Quote figures carry an honest as-of date. Official daily values more than two US trading days old are not shown as current. The snapshot refreshes automatically from official feeds.","riskLine":"This page is general market information, not personal investment advice. Trading involves substantial risk, including the loss of capital. TVALGO LTD is not authorised by the UK Financial Conduct Authority to provide investment advice.","licenceRoute":"official-public","licenceNote":"This draft is original TVALGO code. It does not include World Monitor source and does not call World Monitor hosts. Map tiles: OpenFreeMap, with OpenStreetMap and OpenMapTiles attribution in the map credit. Event summaries are based on official central-bank, government and statistical releases. FX figures are official delayed daily US-dollar reference rates. Official daily energy spots are shown only when they are no more than two US trading days old.","events":[{"id":"ons-2026-11-13-imports-and-exports-of-services-by-country-by-mo","category":"markets","headline":"Imports and exports of services by country, by modes of supply, UK: 2024","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-13","ingestedAt":"2026-11-13T09:40:15.078Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Imports and exports of services by country, by modes of supply, UK: 2024. Country breakdown of trade in services values by mode of supply (imports and exports). Countries include only total services data, while regions include top-level Extended Balance of Payments Services (EBOPS) breakdown.","couldFollow":"This official print may be reflected in USD until a later official release or revision changes the picture. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official text is the latest published record for this item, and no later official revision is in this snapshot.","watch":"Watch USD against the next scheduled official update on this series. Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record.","marketsToWatch":["USD"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record."}},{"id":"ons-trade-202609","category":"markets","headline":"The UK trade deficit widened by 6.2 billion pounds to 10.4 billion in the third quarter","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T07:02:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP","Gilts","EUR/GBP"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Official UK trade figures published on 12 November showed the total goods and services trade deficit, excluding non-monetary gold and other precious metals, widened by 6.2 billion pounds to 10.4 billion in the third quarter, because total imports increased by more than total exports. The goods deficit widened by 6.1 billion pounds to 61.5 billion, while the services surplus narrowed by 0.1 billion pounds to 51.1 billion. In September, the value of goods imports rose by 3.7 billion pounds, or 6.9 percent, and goods exports rose by 2.2 billion pounds, or 6.5 percent, with rises against both EU and non-EU partners.","couldFollow":"A wider official quarterly deficit may keep pressure on sterling and on how traders read the UK external accounts, until later official trade or current-account prints narrow the gap. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official accounts show imports rising faster than exports in the third quarter, with the goods gap widening sharply and the services surplus only slightly smaller.","watch":"Watch sterling and gilts against the next official trade release and the 17 December Bank Rate decision. Figures exclude non-monetary gold unless a later official note says otherwise.","marketsToWatch":["GBP","Gilts","EUR/GBP"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official trade revision materially changes the third-quarter balances.","happenedLead":"The UK trade deficit widened by 6.2 billion pounds to 10.4 billion in the third quarter, as imports rose faster than exports. Almost all of the move was the goods gap, which widened by 6.1 billion pounds to 61.5 billion."}},{"id":"eia-steo-brent-202611","category":"energy","headline":"Official outlook keeps Brent near 100 dollars this year, then lower through late 2027","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T14:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["Brent","WTI","USD/CAD","XAUUSD"],"assets":["fx","commodities"],"layers":["events","energy","conflict"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"In its November 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the US energy administration said it expects the Brent crude spot price to remain near 100 dollars a barrel for the remainder of 2026. It assumes most Middle East production outside Iran returns to pre-conflict averages by the middle of 2027, and it forecasts Brent averaging 77 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027 as inventories rebuild. US commercial crude inventories fell to 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014, with a wide Brent–WTI spread encouraging exports and high refinery runs also drawing stocks.","couldFollow":"Brent, WTI and energy-linked currencies may stay anchored to the official near-term 100-dollar reference until later official updates change that path, or until official inventory data move away from the late-October low. This is a scenario built on a published outlook, not a price target.","because":"The official outlook holds Brent near 100 dollars through the rest of this year and only assumes a later easing once Middle East supply, excluding Iran, is back and inventories have rebuilt.","marketsToWatch":["Brent","WTI","USD/CAD","XAUUSD"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official outlook revises the Brent path, or if later official inventory and production data contradict the assumptions in the November outlook.","watch":"This official outlook is a path for the rest of 2026, not today’s official daily spot. Official daily energy spots were last published for 3 November and are not shown as current. Watch later official inventory prints — the delayed weekly petroleum report was scheduled today after 12:00 ET and was not yet in this snapshot — and later official outlooks.","happenedLead":"The official November energy outlook keeps Brent near 100 dollars a barrel for the rest of 2026, then has it averaging 77 dollars in the fourth quarter of 2027. US commercial crude stocks were 410 million barrels at the end of October, the lowest end-of-October level since 2014."}},{"id":"boj-cgpi-202610","category":"rates","headline":"Japan producer prices rose 0.7 percent in October and were up 7.1 percent on the year","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6812,"lon":139.7671,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-11T23:50:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD/JPY","Nikkei 225","JGB 10-year","Brent"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","centralBanks","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"The Bank of Japan’s preliminary Corporate Goods Price Index for October 2026, released on 12 November, showed the producer price index up 0.7 percent from the previous month and 7.1 percent from a year earlier. Excluding extra summer electricity charges, the monthly rise was 0.9 percent. The import price index rose 2.3 percent on the month and 19.2 percent on the year on a contract-currency basis, and 3.3 percent and 24.8 percent on a yen basis. Export prices rose 0.6 percent on the month and 12.2 percent on the year on a contract-currency basis.","couldFollow":"Yen, Japanese government bonds and Japanese equities may react if later official consumer-price and policy statements treat these producer and import increases as a signal of pipeline inflation. Import prices are also a reason to keep crude on the same screen. This is a scenario, not a policy call.","because":"The official index shows another monthly rise in producer prices and a still-high yearly rate, with import prices up sharply on both a yen and a contract-currency basis.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Nikkei 225","JGB 10-year","Brent"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official CGPI revision materially changes the October figures, or if a formal correction is issued to the 12 November release.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official CGPI revision materially changes the October figures, or if a formal correction is issued to the 12 November release. Watch USD/JPY, Nikkei 225, JGB 10-year, Brent.","happenedLead":"Japan producer prices rose 0.7 percent in October, and were up 7.1 percent on the year. Import prices rose 2.3 percent on the month and 19.2 percent on the year on a contract-currency basis."}},{"id":"ons-gdp-q3-20261112","category":"markets","headline":"UK real GDP rose 0.7 percent in the third quarter, and 1.9 percent on the year","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T07:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP","Gilts","FTSE","EUR/GBP"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Official first-quarterly UK figures published on 12 November showed real GDP up 0.7 percent in the third quarter, after 0.5 percent in the second, and up 1.9 percent on the year. Services output rose 0.9 percent, production rose 0.1 percent, and construction fell 0.7 percent. Real GDP per head rose 0.7 percent on the quarter and 1.7 percent on the year. The next official GDP release is scheduled for 22 December.","couldFollow":"Sterling, gilts and UK-listed equities may stay sensitive to this firmer official activity print until later official GDP, inflation or policy communications change the picture. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official quarterly accounts show a ninth consecutive three-month on three-month expansion, led by services, with production only barely up and construction still falling.","watch":"The next official GDP release is 22 December. Watch sterling, gilts and the 17 December Bank Rate decision against later official inflation and labour prints.","marketsToWatch":["GBP","Gilts","FTSE","EUR/GBP"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official GDP revision or a later official policy communication materially changes the third-quarter picture.","happenedLead":"UK real GDP rose 0.7 percent in the third quarter, after 0.5 percent in the second, and was up 1.9 percent on the year. Services led the rise, production was barely up, and construction fell 0.7 percent."}},{"id":"dol-claims-20261112","category":"markets","headline":"US initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week ending 7 November","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T13:30:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["US 2-year","Fed funds","S&P 500","USD/JPY"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Official US weekly claims figures published on 12 November showed the advance, seasonally adjusted initial claims count at 200,000 in the week ending 7 November, up 9,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week was revised up by 2,000, from 189,000 to 191,000. The four-week moving average was 195,250, unchanged from the revised previous average. Seasonally adjusted insured unemployment was 1,697,000 in the week ending 31 October, down 20,000, and the insured unemployment rate was 1.1 percent, unchanged.","couldFollow":"A still-contained official claims print may keep the US labour-market picture orderly into the next weekly release and the 8–9 December policy meeting, unless later official claims or payrolls deteriorate. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official advance count rose, but the four-week average was unchanged after an upward revision to the prior week, and continued claims fell.","watch":"The next official weekly claims print is scheduled for 19 November. Watch US 2-year yields, Fed funds futures and the dollar against that print and the 4 December employment report.","marketsToWatch":["US 2-year","Fed funds","S&P 500","USD/JPY"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or the next weekly print moves the four-week average in a sustained way.","happenedLead":"US initial jobless claims rose to 200,000 in the week ending 7 November, up 9,000 from the previous week's revised 191,000. The four-week moving average was unchanged at 195,250."}},{"id":"ons-business-investment-2026q3","category":"markets","headline":"UK business investment rose 0.4 percent in the third quarter, and was 3.0 percent higher than a year earlier","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T07:05:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP","Gilts","FTSE"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official provisional UK business-investment figures published on 12 November showed business investment up 0.4 percent in the third quarter and 3.0 percent above the same quarter of 2025. The release carries datasets only; official commentary is in the first quarterly GDP estimate published the same day. In line with the official revisions policy, no earlier periods were open for revision in this release.","couldFollow":"A modest official rise in business investment may be read as support under the third-quarter GDP print, until later official capital-formation figures are revised. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official provisional accounts show investment still rising, and still above a year earlier, even if the quarterly pace is modest.","watch":"Watch sterling and gilts against later official business-investment revisions and the 17 December Bank Rate decision.","marketsToWatch":["GBP","Gilts","FTSE"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official investment revisions materially change the third-quarter rise."}},{"id":"ons-ios-202609","category":"markets","headline":"UK services output rose 0.9 percent in the third quarter and 0.2 percent in September","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T07:03:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP","FTSE"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official UK services figures published on 12 November showed services output up 0.9 percent in the third quarter, after 0.6 percent in the second quarter and 0.7 percent in the first. Eleven of fourteen sectors rose in the third quarter, led by administrative and support activities, up 4.1 percent, information and communication, up 2.1 percent, and professional, scientific and technical activities, up 1.6 percent. Education and accommodation and food each fell 0.5 percent. Monthly services output rose 0.2 percent in September, after a 0.1 percent fall in August and a 0.5 percent rise in July.","couldFollow":"The official services path may keep UK activity readings anchored to the consumer and business-services complex until later official monthly services prints fade. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"Services are the main official driver of the third-quarter GDP rise, and the monthly September rebound followed a small official August decline.","watch":"Watch sterling and UK-listed services names against the next official Index of Services print and the 17 December Bank Rate decision.","marketsToWatch":["GBP","FTSE"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official services revisions materially change the third quarter or September."}},{"id":"eia-alaska-20261112","category":"energy","headline":"Alaska crude output is forecast to rise 13 percent in 2027, to a 13-year high","place":"North Slope, Alaska","lat":70.325,"lon":-148.71,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T14:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["WTI","Brent"],"assets":["commodities"],"layers":["events","energy"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"An official 12 November 2026 energy note said Alaskan crude production is expected to rise by 23,000 barrels a day, or 6 percent, in 2026, then by 60,000 barrels a day, or 13 percent, in 2027. At a forecast 505,000 barrels a day in 2027, output would be the most since 2014. The growth is attributed to two North Slope projects: Nuna, which started in December 2024, and Pikka Phase 1, which started in May 2026 and had reached 38,000 barrels a day by September, with peak output of 80,000 barrels a day expected by winter 2026–27.","couldFollow":"If the official path is realised, incremental North Slope barrels would add to US supply into 2027, which is a reason to watch WTI and the regional crude discount rather than treat Alaska as a declining province. This is a scenario, not a production guarantee.","because":"The official forecast is a rare, large annual increase for Alaska, tied to two named projects that are already producing.","marketsToWatch":["WTI","Brent"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official outlook cuts the Alaska path, or if later official state production data show the two projects failing to reach the stated rates.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official outlook cuts the Alaska path, or if later official state production data show the two projects failing to reach the stated rates. Watch WTI, Brent."}},{"id":"ons-iop-202609","category":"markets","headline":"UK production edged up 0.1 percent in the third quarter, led by manufacturing","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T07:04:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP","FTSE","UK utilities"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official UK production figures published on 12 November showed production up 0.1 percent in the third quarter after a 0.1 percent fall in the second. Manufacturing rose 0.9 percent and was partly offset by falls in electricity and gas, down 2.1 percent, water and sewerage, down 1.5 percent, and mining and quarrying, down 2.2 percent. Monthly production rose 0.3 percent in September, after a 0.7 percent rise in August and a 0.1 percent fall in July, with manufacturing up 0.7 percent on the month.","couldFollow":"A barely positive official production quarter may keep the UK growth picture skewed toward services until later official manufacturing and energy-output prints change the mix. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official breakdown shows manufacturing carrying the quarter while utilities and mining subtracted, so the headline rise is narrow.","watch":"Watch sterling, UK industrial names and the next official Index of Production print. Set the quarter aside if later official revisions rewrite manufacturing or utilities.","marketsToWatch":["GBP","FTSE","UK utilities"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official production revisions materially change the third quarter."}},{"id":"ons-gdp-monthly-202609","category":"markets","headline":"Monthly UK GDP rose 0.2 percent in September, after no growth in August","place":"London","lat":51.5072,"lon":-0.1276,"officialDate":"2026-11-12","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T07:01:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP","Gilts","FTSE"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"The same official UK release showed monthly GDP up 0.2 percent in September, after no growth in August (revised down from a 0.1 percent rise) and an unrevised 0.4 percent rise in July. September’s monthly rise was driven by a 0.2 percent increase in services, with production up 0.3 percent and construction up 0.8 percent. In the three months to September, real GDP was up 0.7 percent compared with the three months to June, after 0.6 percent in the three months to August (revised down from 0.7 percent).","couldFollow":"The official monthly path may keep attention on whether fourth-quarter UK activity holds the three-month pace, rather than on a single month. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official monthly series shows a modest September rebound after a downward revision that left August flat, with all three main sectors up on the month.","watch":"Watch the next official monthly GDP alongside the 17 December Bank Rate decision, sterling and gilts. Set the short-month reading aside if later official revisions rewrite August or September.","marketsToWatch":["GBP","Gilts","FTSE"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official monthly GDP revisions materially change August or September."}},{"id":"ecb-2026-11-11-the-role-of-refining-costs-and-margins-in-hicp-e","category":"energy","headline":"The role of refining costs and margins in HICP energy inflation","place":"Frankfurt","lat":50.1109,"lon":8.6821,"officialDate":"2026-11-11","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:31:13.969Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD","US 2-year","EUR/USD","Brent","WTI"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","centralBanks","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"The role of refining costs and margins in HICP energy inflation. Energy market developments continue to be shaped by the conflict in the Middle East. Global refinery runs have fallen significantly compared to previous years, driven by reduced refinery activity in the Middle East, Russia and Asia. The constrained supply of crude oil and refined products has led to a persistent global increase in refining margins and costs, particularly for diesel.","couldFollow":"This official print may be reflected in USD, US 2-year, EUR/USD, Brent until a later official release or revision changes the picture. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official text is the latest published record for this item, and no later official revision is in this snapshot.","watch":"Watch USD, US 2-year, EUR/USD, Brent against the next scheduled official update on this series. Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record.","marketsToWatch":["USD","US 2-year","EUR/USD","Brent","WTI"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record."}},{"id":"boc-deliberations-20261028","category":"rates","headline":"Official Canadian policy deliberations said the rate rise was meant to limit broader inflation from high energy prices","place":"Ottawa","lat":45.4215,"lon":-75.6972,"officialDate":"2026-11-10","ingestedAt":"2026-11-10T15:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD/CAD","Canada 2-year","TSX"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"The official summary of Canadian policy deliberations for the 28 October decision, published on 10 November, said members raised the policy rate to 2.50 percent to reduce the risk that persistently high energy prices would lead to broader price increases and become persistent inflation. Members said mid-year growth had been stronger than expected, with GDP up 3.3 percent in the second quarter and recent indicators pointing to about 2 percent in the third, but expected the late-summer escalation in trade tensions with the United States to dampen fourth-quarter growth. They said there could be a need to raise the policy rate further, but that they would take decisions one meeting at a time.","couldFollow":"The official deliberations may keep USD/CAD and Canadian yields sensitive to energy prices and to the next official Canadian inflation and labour prints, with a further rise still on the table but not pre-committed. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official account ties the 28 October increase to the risk of energy prices spreading, and it leaves room for a further rise without locking in a path.","watch":"The next official Canadian consumer-price release is scheduled for 16 November. The next scheduled Canadian policy date sits after this week’s window. Watch USD/CAD and Canadian 2-year yields against that inflation print.","marketsToWatch":["USD/CAD","Canada 2-year","TSX"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official policy statement or a later official inflation print clearly changes the energy-to-broader-prices concern described in the deliberations."}},{"id":"bls-cpi-202610","category":"rates","headline":"US consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in October; yearly rates were not published for many series","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-10","ingestedAt":"2026-11-10T13:30:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["US 2-year","US 10-year","USD/JPY","EUR/USD","XAUUSD","Brent"],"assets":["fx","commodities"],"layers":["events","centralBanks","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"The official October 2026 consumer price report showed the all-items index up 0.4 percent on the month, after a 0.6 percent rise in September. Energy rose 0.7 percent, following a 5.2 percent increase in September. Food rose 0.5 percent. Shelter rose 0.3 percent and accounted for more than thirty percent of the monthly all-items increase. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent, the same as in September and August. Twelve-month percent changes for October 2026 were not published for many series, because October 2025 survey data were not collected during a lapse in appropriations.","couldFollow":"US yields, the dollar and inflation-sensitive assets may still move on the monthly figures, even though the official yearly rates are missing for many indexes. Energy’s second strong monthly rise is a reason to keep crude and short-term rates on the same screen. This is a scenario, not a pricing forecast.","because":"The official monthly increases in all-items, energy and core were published, while the usual twelve-month comparisons were withheld for many series, so desks have to work from the monthly record alone.","marketsToWatch":["US 2-year","US 10-year","USD/JPY","EUR/USD","XAUUSD","Brent"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a formal correction is issued to the October CPI release, or if later official tables restore twelve-month changes that materially change the reading of the report.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a formal correction is issued to the October CPI release, or if later official tables restore twelve-month changes that materially change the reading of the report. Watch US 2-year, US 10-year, USD/JPY, EUR/USD."}},{"id":"hmt-apf-20261110","category":"markets","headline":"The official ceiling on the UK bond-purchase facility was cut to 482.4 billion pounds","place":"London","lat":51.5142,"lon":-0.0931,"officialDate":"2026-11-10","ingestedAt":"2026-11-10T12:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["UK 10-year gilt","UK 30-year gilt","GBP/USD","FTSE 100"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 10 November 2026 the Chancellor and the Governor of the Bank of England agreed to reduce the maximum authorised size of the Asset Purchase Facility from 524.9 billion pounds to 482.4 billion pounds, matching the stock of gilt holdings as of 4 November. Of that ceiling, 362.4 billion pounds is authorised for monetary policy and 120 billion pounds of the longest-dated gilts is authorised to back current and future banknote issuance. The facility has been reduced by 412.5 billion pounds from its January 2022 peak of 894.9 billion pounds. The Monetary Policy Committee’s earlier decision is to unwind the policy portfolio at a 20 billion pound annual sales pace, in purchase-proceeds terms, until those gilts are fully unwound by the end of 2034, equivalent to an average yearly stock reduction of 46 billion pounds. Gilt sales with redemption dates earlier than 2035 are not being made, and officials are developing a model under which active sales would be to the government rather than to the market, with a review before April 2027.","couldFollow":"UK gilt yields, especially at the long end, may respond more to the official sales pace and to any later decision to sell only to the government, than to the ceiling cut itself, because the new ceiling was set equal to the existing stock. Watch the 10-year and 30-year gilts and sterling. This is a scenario, not a view on the next Debt Management Office remit.","because":"The official letters both lower the authorised ceiling to the current stock and restate a multi-year gilt-unwind path, including a possible shift of sales away from the secondary market.","marketsToWatch":["UK 10-year gilt","UK 30-year gilt","GBP/USD","FTSE 100"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official letter changes the ceiling, the sales pace, or the plan to review sales-to-government before April 2027.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official letter changes the ceiling, the sales pace, or the plan to review sales-to-government before April 2027. Watch UK 10-year gilt, UK 30-year gilt, GBP/USD, FTSE 100."}},{"id":"eia-2026-11-10-eia-raises-november-natural-gas-storage-forecast","category":"energy","headline":"EIA raises November natural gas storage forecast after warm start to month","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-10","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:31:13.969Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["Brent","WTI"],"assets":["fx","commodities"],"layers":["events","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"EIA raises November natural gas storage forecast after warm start to month. The official (EIA) expects almost 70 billion cubic feet more natural gas to be in U.S. storage at the end of November than it forecast in October. A warm start to the month is easing pressure on natural gas prices.","couldFollow":"This official print may be reflected in Brent, WTI until a later official release or revision changes the picture. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official text is the latest published record for this item, and no later official revision is in this snapshot.","watch":"Watch Brent, WTI against the next scheduled official update on this series. Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record.","marketsToWatch":["Brent","WTI"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record."}},{"id":"doe-arena-20261110","category":"energy","headline":"A 480 million dollar official loan closed for a Gulf of Mexico oil and gas project","place":"Gulf of Mexico","lat":28.3,"lon":-89.5,"officialDate":"2026-11-10","ingestedAt":"2026-11-10T18:13:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["WTI","Henry Hub gas"],"assets":["commodities"],"layers":["events","energy"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"On 10 November 2026 the US Energy Department said it had reached financial close on a 480 million dollar loan for Arena Energy’s Project Elkhorn, to increase oil and natural-gas production and strengthen offshore infrastructure in the Gulf of Mexico.","couldFollow":"If the official project proceeds as described, incremental Gulf of Mexico output would be a later supply factor for WTI and US natural gas, not an immediate change in today’s official inventory. This is a scenario, not a production forecast.","because":"The official close of a production-linked loan is a dated financing fact, but output only appears in later official production data.","marketsToWatch":["WTI","Henry Hub gas"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official notice cancels or restructures the loan, or if later official production data never show the associated output.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official notice cancels or restructures the loan, or if later official production data never show the associated output. Watch WTI, Henry Hub gas."}},{"id":"bls-realer-202610","category":"markets","headline":"US real average hourly and weekly earnings were unchanged in October","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-10","ingestedAt":"2026-11-10T13:31:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD","S&P 500","US 2-year"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official real-earnings figures published on 10 November showed real average hourly earnings for all employees unchanged from September to October, as average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent and the consumer-price index for all urban consumers also rose 0.4 percent. Real average weekly earnings were also unchanged, with no change in the average workweek. Year-ago comparisons from October 2025 to October 2026 were not published, because the official consumer-price survey for October 2025 was missing after a lapse in appropriations. The next official real-earnings release is scheduled for 10 December.","couldFollow":"Unchanged official real earnings may be read as a pause in household purchasing-power gains after a month in which prices and nominal pay rose at the same official pace. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official monthly identity is mechanical: a 0.4 percent rise in pay was matched by a 0.4 percent rise in the consumer-price index, so real hourly pay was flat.","watch":"The next official real-earnings release is 10 December, the same morning as the next official consumer-price report. Watch the dollar and US 2-year yields against those prints. Year-ago comparisons remain unavailable until the official gap is filled.","marketsToWatch":["USD","S&P 500","US 2-year"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision changes October earnings or the October consumer-price index."}},{"id":"ea-services-202608","category":"markets","headline":"Euro-area services production rose 0.3 percent in August","place":"Luxembourg","lat":49.6116,"lon":6.1319,"officialDate":"2026-11-09","ingestedAt":"2026-11-09T10:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["EUR/USD","Stoxx"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official euro-area figures published on 9 November showed seasonally adjusted services production up 0.3 percent in August in both the euro area and the EU, after 0.4 percent and 0.3 percent respectively in July. Compared with August 2025, services production was up 2.2 percent in the euro area and 2.1 percent in the EU. In the euro area, information and communication rose 1.2 percent on the month, while professional, scientific and technical activities fell 0.8 percent and accommodation and food services fell 0.3 percent.","couldFollow":"A still-positive official services-production print may offset some of the weaker official retail-volume news when traders read euro-area activity, until later official services figures slow. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official monthly rise is modest but extends July’s increase, and the yearly rate remains a little above 2 percent.","watch":"Watch EUR/USD and euro-area equity indexes against the next official services-production release and mid-December policy communications.","marketsToWatch":["EUR/USD","Stoxx"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official revisions materially change the August services-production print."}},{"id":"boj-2026-11-09-summary-of-opinions-at-the-monetary-policy-meeti","category":"rates","headline":"Official October policy opinions saw a decelerated but continuing expansion, with weak consumption","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6895,"lon":139.6917,"officialDate":"2026-11-09","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:37:03.387Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official opinions from the 29–30 October policy meeting, released in early November, said the Japanese economy has recovered moderately, with some weakness, including from the situation in the Middle East. Official members expected growth to continue in fiscal 2026, albeit at a decelerated rate, and to rise moderately from fiscal 2027 as the effects of high energy and raw material prices wane. One official opinion said private consumption lacked momentum, citing a decline in the official consumption activity index on average in July and August relative to April–June.","couldFollow":"Official comments that consumption lacked momentum, alongside a still-expansionary official outlook, may stay in focus for USD/JPY until the next official policy meeting or outlook. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official opinions are the policy board's published record of the discussion at the same meeting that held the official overnight rate at around 1.25 percent.","watch":"Watch USD/JPY and Japanese government bonds against the next official policy meeting. Set this scenario aside if a later official statement changes that assessment.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Japan 10-year"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official statement changes that assessment."}},{"id":"boj-2026-11-08-monetary-base-and-the-bank-of-japan-s-transactio","category":"markets","headline":"Official Japanese monetary base was 537.2 trillion yen at the end of October","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6895,"lon":139.6917,"officialDate":"2026-11-08","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:40:15.171Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official figures published on 9 November showed the monetary base at 537.2 trillion yen at the end of October, after 535.4 trillion at the end of September and 543.8 trillion at the end of August. Banknotes in circulation were 114.2 trillion yen, and official current-account balances were 418.5 trillion yen. Official outright holdings of Japanese government bonds were 505.3 trillion yen at the end of October.","couldFollow":"A modest official rebound in the monetary base in October, after a September decline, may be watched in USD/JPY and Japanese government bonds as a record of official operations, until the next official monthly print. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official stock table is the latest published monthly record of the monetary base and of official bond and current-account balances.","watch":"Watch USD/JPY against the next official monthly monetary-base release. Set this scenario aside if a later official print revises these stocks.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Japan 10-year"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official print revises these stocks."}},{"id":"canada-lfs-202610","category":"markets","headline":"Canadian employment was little changed in October and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7 percent","place":"Ottawa","lat":45.4215,"lon":-75.6972,"officialDate":"2026-11-06","ingestedAt":"2026-11-06T13:30:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD/CAD","Canada 2-year","TSX"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Official Canadian labour-force figures released on 6 November showed employment little changed in October, down 4,700 or 0.0 percent, and the unemployment rate up 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 percent. The employment rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 60.5 percent, a third consecutive monthly decline. Youth unemployment, ages 15 to 24, rose 0.7 percentage points to 13.7 percent. Employment fell in wholesale and retail trade, down 29,000, and in Alberta, down 24,000, while construction and educational services rose. Average hourly wages were up 2.2 percent on the year, to 37.89 Canadian dollars.","couldFollow":"A softer official Canadian labour print may be weighed against the 28 October rate rise and the 16 November inflation release when traders read the next policy step. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official survey shows a second monthly rise in the unemployment rate, a lower employment rate, and a sharp rise in youth unemployment, even though the headline employment change was small.","watch":"The next official Canadian consumer-price release is 16 November. Watch USD/CAD and Canadian 2-year yields against that print and later official labour figures.","marketsToWatch":["USD/CAD","Canada 2-year","TSX"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official labour-force revision or a later official inflation print materially changes this reading."}},{"id":"bls-emp-202610","category":"rates","headline":"US payrolls rose by 165,000 in October and the jobless rate stayed at 4.1 percent","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-06","ingestedAt":"2026-11-10T13:30:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["US 2-year","Fed funds futures","USD/JPY","S&P 500"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 165,000 in October 2026, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 4.1 percent, with 7.1 million people unemployed. The unemployment rate has remained in a narrow range of 4.1 to 4.3 percent. Employment increased in professional and business services, health care, and transportation and warehousing. The number of people working part time for economic reasons increased by 339,000, to 4.8 million. Average hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers rose 14 cents, or 0.4 percent, to 38.00 dollars, and were up 3.1 percent over the past twelve months.","couldFollow":"The official labour-market pulse — payroll growth, a still-low jobless rate, and a 3.1 percent yearly rise in hourly earnings — is a direct input to later official US rate decisions. Watch short-term Treasuries, the dollar and US equities into the 8–9 December meeting. This is a scenario, not a judgement that the data are ‘strong’ or ‘weak’ in market-pricing terms.","because":"The official report shows job gains continuing and pay still rising on a twelve-month basis, while involuntary part-time work also increased in the same month.","marketsToWatch":["US 2-year","Fed funds futures","USD/JPY","S&P 500"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or correction materially changes the October payroll, unemployment or earnings figures.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or correction materially changes the October payroll, unemployment or earnings figures. Watch US 2-year, Fed funds futures, USD/JPY, S&P 500."}},{"id":"eia-venezuela-20261106","category":"energy","headline":"US crude imports from Venezuela reached a nine-year high in July","place":"Venezuela","lat":10.4806,"lon":-66.9036,"officialDate":"2026-11-06","ingestedAt":"2026-11-06T14:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["WTI","Brent","US Gulf diesel"],"assets":["commodities"],"layers":["events","energy","conflict"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official petroleum supply data, summarised on 6 November 2026, showed US crude imports from Venezuela averaging 701,000 barrels a day in July 2026, the most since May 2017, before easing to 655,000 barrels a day in August. Imports began the year at 200,000 barrels a day and rose in most months. The note said the increase was supported by high US refinery demand and the easing of US government restrictions on purchases, and that in 2026 the United States was the largest single destination for Venezuelan crude, with no crude exported to China.","couldFollow":"Heavy-sour crude availability on the US Gulf Coast, and any later official change in purchase restrictions, are a reason to watch US refined-product and crude spreads, including WTI versus Brent. This is a scenario, not a view on future sanctions policy.","because":"The official flow is large by recent standards and is explicitly tied to an easing of purchase restrictions and to Gulf Coast refining demand for heavy grades.","marketsToWatch":["WTI","Brent","US Gulf diesel"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official trade data show the flow reversing, or if a later official restriction changes the legal basis for those purchases.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if later official trade data show the flow reversing, or if a later official restriction changes the legal basis for those purchases. Watch WTI, Brent, US Gulf diesel."}},{"id":"ea-retail-202609","category":"markets","headline":"Euro-area retail trade volume fell 0.7 percent in September","place":"Luxembourg","lat":49.6116,"lon":6.1319,"officialDate":"2026-11-06","ingestedAt":"2026-11-06T10:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["EUR/USD","Bund","Stoxx"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official euro-area figures published on 6 November showed seasonally adjusted retail trade volume down 0.7 percent in September, after a 0.4 percent rise in August, and down 0.6 percent in the wider EU. Compared with September 2025, the calendar-adjusted index was up 0.4 percent in the euro area and 0.9 percent in the EU. In the euro area, food, drinks and tobacco fell 0.3 percent on the month and non-food products excluding automotive fuel fell 1.2 percent, while automotive fuel in specialised stores rose 1.0 percent. Among reporting members, Germany was down 2.0 percent on the month.","couldFollow":"A weaker official retail-volume month, including a 2.0 percent official fall in Germany, may keep a cautious tone on euro-area domestic demand until later official retail or consumption prints rebound. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official monthly drop reversed August’s rise and was led by non-food goods, with Germany among the weakest reporting members.","watch":"Watch EUR/USD, Bunds and euro-area equity indexes against the next official retail-trade release and the mid-December euro-area policy meeting.","marketsToWatch":["EUR/USD","Bund","Stoxx"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official revisions materially change the September euro-area or German retail figures."}},{"id":"usgs-m61-hasaki-2026","category":"natural","headline":"A magnitude 6.1 earthquake was recorded off Japan’s east coast, southeast of Hasaki","place":"Off Hasaki, Japan","lat":34.9677,"lon":142.1175,"officialDate":"2026-11-06","ingestedAt":"2026-11-06T10:39:27Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD/JPY","Nikkei 225"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"Low","briefing":{"happened":"The official earthquake service recorded a magnitude 6.1 event 144 kilometres southeast of Hasaki, Japan, at a depth of 29 kilometres. This snapshot records the official origin and magnitude only. It does not include damage, shutdown or tsunami conclusions, because those were not in the official event record used here.","couldFollow":"Yen and Japanese equities would typically be watched only if later official notices report damage to ports, industry or energy infrastructure on the east coast. Until such an official notice exists, this remains a location and magnitude record, not a market event in its own right. This is a scenario.","because":"The official epicentre is offshore from an industrial stretch of the Kanto coast, but the record used here does not itself establish economic damage.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Nikkei 225"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official magnitude or location revisions remove the event, or if official authorities report no material disruption — in which case there is no market link to watch.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if later official magnitude or location revisions remove the event, or if official authorities report no material disruption — in which case there is no market link to watch. Watch USD/JPY, Nikkei 225."}},{"id":"bls-prod-2026q3","category":"markets","headline":"US nonfarm productivity rose 3.6 percent in the third quarter, and unit labour costs fell 0.7 percent","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-05","ingestedAt":"2026-11-05T13:30:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["US 10-year","S&P 500","USD/JPY"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Official preliminary US productivity and costs figures, released on 5 November, showed nonfarm business labour productivity up 3.6 percent in the third quarter, at a seasonally adjusted annual rate, as output rose 3.7 percent and hours worked rose 0.1 percent. From a year earlier, nonfarm productivity was up 2.1 percent. Unit labour costs fell 0.7 percent in the quarter, as hourly compensation rose 2.9 percent and productivity rose 3.6 percent, and were up 2.4 percent over the last four quarters. Manufacturing productivity rose 0.3 percent. The labour share was 53.0 percent, the lowest in a series that begins in the first quarter of 1947.","couldFollow":"A strong official productivity print with falling quarterly unit labour costs may be read as easing some cost-pressure concern, even as the yearly rise in unit labour costs stays positive. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official accounts show output rising much faster than hours, so unit labour costs fell on the quarter even though hourly compensation increased.","watch":"Watch US yields and equity indexes against later official revisions to this preliminary print, the 13 November producer-price release, and the 8–9 December policy meeting.","marketsToWatch":["US 10-year","S&P 500","USD/JPY"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision materially changes third-quarter productivity or unit labour costs."}},{"id":"boe-mpc-20261105","category":"rates","headline":"UK Bank Rate raised by a quarter point to 4 percent","place":"London","lat":51.5142,"lon":-0.0931,"officialDate":"2026-11-05","ingestedAt":"2026-11-05T12:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["GBP/USD","UK 10-year gilt","FTSE 100","Brent"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","centralBanks","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 4 November 2026 the Monetary Policy Committee voted 8–1 to raise Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4 percent. One member preferred a half-point increase, to 4.25 percent. The Committee said UK CPI inflation rose to 3.5 percent in September and was then expected to rise to around 5 percent by the middle of the following year, before falling back as the direct effect of higher energy prices on twelve-month rates fades. It said global energy prices had continued to rise, activity data had generally been stronger than expected, and pipeline price pressure was sufficient to warrant the increase, while evidence of knock-on effects on other prices and wages remained limited. The next scheduled decision is 17 December 2026.","couldFollow":"Sterling, gilts and UK equities may reprice around the higher official rate and around the Committee’s published path for inflation into mid-2027. The next official decision on 17 December 2026 is the first scheduled point at which that setting can be confirmed or changed. This is a scenario, not a recommendation.","because":"The official record is a rate increase, not a hold, and it links that increase to stronger activity and an energy-driven rise in the inflation outlook.","marketsToWatch":["GBP/USD","UK 10-year gilt","FTSE 100","Brent"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official MPC announcement changes Bank Rate, or if a formal correction is issued to the November summary.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official MPC announcement changes Bank Rate, or if a formal correction is issued to the November summary. Watch GBP/USD, UK 10-year gilt, FTSE 100, Brent."}},{"id":"dol-2026-11-05-unemployment-insurance-weekly-claims-report","category":"markets","headline":"Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-11-05","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:31:13.969Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD","US 2-year","S&P 500"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report. In the week ending October 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 189,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 194,000 to 195,000. The 4-week moving average was 194,750, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's revised average.","couldFollow":"This official print may be reflected in USD, US 2-year, S&P 500 until a later official release or revision changes the picture. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official text is the latest published record for this item, and no later official revision is in this snapshot.","watch":"Watch USD, US 2-year, S&P 500 against the next scheduled official update on this series. Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record.","marketsToWatch":["USD","US 2-year","S&P 500"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official revision or statement materially changes the record."}},{"id":"eia-distillate-20261105","category":"energy","headline":"US refiners have shifted output toward diesel and jet at the expense of gasoline","place":"Gulf of Mexico","lat":28.3,"lon":-89.5,"officialDate":"2026-11-05","ingestedAt":"2026-11-05T14:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["Gasoil","RBOB gasoline","WTI"],"assets":["commodities"],"layers":["events","energy"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"An official 5 November 2026 energy note said particularly high refinery margins for distillate fuel oil and jet fuel had contributed to shifts in US refinery yields in 2026, with production moving away from gasoline toward middle distillates, based on petroleum supply data through August.","couldFollow":"If those official yield shifts persist, diesel and jet balances could stay firmer than gasoline even when crude is unchanged. Watch heating-oil and gasoil contracts against gasoline. This is a scenario, not a seasonal trade.","because":"The official explanation is a change in refinery yields driven by official-cited margins, not a change in crude supply alone.","marketsToWatch":["Gasoil","RBOB gasoline","WTI"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official yield data show refiners moving back toward gasoline, or if a correction is issued to the August supply figures.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if later official yield data show refiners moving back toward gasoline, or if a correction is issued to the August supply figures. Watch Gasoil, RBOB gasoline, WTI."}},{"id":"boj-2026-11-04-minutes-of-the-monetary-policy-meeting-on-septem","category":"rates","headline":"Official September minutes record a 7-2 vote to set the overnight call rate at around 1.25 percent","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6895,"lon":139.6917,"officialDate":"2026-11-04","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:37:03.556Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"Minutes of the 17–18 September meeting, released in early November, record that the official Japanese policy board decided by a 7-2 majority to encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.25 percent, and to set the complementary deposit-facility rate at 1.25 percent. The official minutes note that the call rate had been around 1.0 percent going into that meeting.","couldFollow":"The official September vote to 1.25 percent is the last completed change of the official call-rate guideline before the 30 October hold, and may remain the reference for USD/JPY until a later official decision. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official minutes are the published record of that 7-2 decision, including the new official deposit-facility rate of 1.25 percent.","watch":"Watch USD/JPY against the next official policy decision. Set this scenario aside if a later official decision changes the call-rate guideline.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Japan 10-year","Nikkei 225"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official decision changes the call-rate guideline."}},{"id":"ecb-wage-20261104","category":"rates","headline":"Euro-area negotiated wage tracker edges higher into 2027, on still-limited coverage","place":"Frankfurt","lat":50.1109,"lon":8.6821,"officialDate":"2026-11-04","ingestedAt":"2026-11-03T23:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["EUR/USD","Bund","DAX"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"On 4 November 2026 the ECB updated its wage tracker with agreements signed up to mid-October. The headline tracker stands at 2.7 percent in the second half of 2026 and 2.8 percent in the first half of 2027, and declines to 2.4 percent in the third quarter of 2027 on still-limited employee coverage. Excluding one-off payments, the tracker averages 2.8 percent in the first three quarters of 2027, slightly above 2.6 percent for 2026 as a whole. The release said the forward-looking figures should not be read as a forecast, and that coverage falls to 23.3 percent of employees in the third quarter of 2027. Separate ECB staff projections, referenced in the same notice, put compensation per employee growth at 3.3 percent in 2026.","couldFollow":"Euro-area rate-sensitive assets may treat a slightly higher permanent negotiated-wage reading as one input to later official inflation assessments, while the limited 2027 coverage is a reason not to treat the later quarters as settled. This is a scenario, not a forecast of wages or rates.","because":"The official tracker is slightly higher for the first three quarters of 2027 than for 2026 when one-offs are excluded, and the same notice warns that the forward-looking leg is not a forecast.","marketsToWatch":["EUR/USD","Bund","DAX"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official wage-tracker release revises the 2026–2027 figures, or if the December 2026 update, scheduled for 18 December, changes the picture.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official wage-tracker release revises the 2026–2027 figures, or if the December 2026 update, scheduled for 18 December, changes the picture. Watch EUR/USD, Bund, DAX."}},{"id":"eia-refinery-20261103","category":"energy","headline":"Global refinery runs dropped 4.8 million barrels a day in the second quarter after the Middle East conflict began","place":"Strait of Hormuz","lat":26.6,"lon":56.25,"officialDate":"2026-11-03","ingestedAt":"2026-11-03T14:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["Brent","Gasoil","Jet fuel","WTI"],"assets":["commodities"],"layers":["events","energy","conflict"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"An official 3 November 2026 energy note said global crude refinery inputs fell by 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026, following the start of conflict in the Middle East in late February. Throughput then rose by 1.8 million barrels a day in the third quarter as refiners adjusted to new trade flows. The largest declines were in countries most directly affected by the loss of crude supply through the Strait of Hormuz. China’s inputs fell by 2.1 million barrels a day in the second quarter and by a further 0.8 million in the third; India, South Korea and Japan together fell by more than 1.0 million barrels a day in the second quarter before a 0.8 million rebound.","couldFollow":"If official data later show runs failing to recover, refined-product balances — especially diesel and jet — could stay tight even if crude supply improves. The Hormuz channel is the official geographic link. This is a scenario, not a shipping forecast.","because":"The official record ties a large, unusual second-quarter drop in global refining to the late-February conflict and to lost crude supply through the Strait of Hormuz.","marketsToWatch":["Brent","Gasoil","Jet fuel","WTI"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if later official or official-cited throughput data show the drop revised away, or if later official statements attribute the fall to a different cause.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if later official or official-cited throughput data show the drop revised away, or if later official statements attribute the fall to a different cause. Watch Brent, Gasoil, Jet fuel, WTI."}},{"id":"boj-2026-10-30-outlook-for-economic-activity-and-prices-october","category":"rates","headline":"Official Japanese outlook sees consumer prices clearly above 2 percent in fiscal 2026, then back toward 2 percent","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6895,"lon":139.6917,"officialDate":"2026-10-30","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:37:03.801Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"The official October 2026 outlook, decided on 29 and 30 October, has the median policy-board forecast for real GDP at 0.7 percent in fiscal 2026 and 0.7 percent in fiscal 2027. The median forecast for consumer prices excluding fresh food is 2.5 percent in fiscal 2026 and 2.6 percent in fiscal 2027, then 2.0 percent in fiscal 2028. The official text says that yearly increase is likely to move clearly above 2 percent before declining toward around 2 percent later in the projection period, with official risks to prices skewed to the upside.","couldFollow":"An official path with consumer prices clearly above 2 percent in the near term, and official price risks described as skewed to the upside, may stay in focus for USD/JPY and Japanese government bonds until the next official outlook. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official median forecasts raise fiscal-2027 consumer prices excluding fresh food to 2.6 percent, compared with 2.4 percent in the July outlook, while describing real GDP growth as more or less unchanged.","watch":"Watch USD/JPY and Japanese government bonds against the next official outlook and the next scheduled policy meeting. Set this scenario aside if a later official outlook or decision changes those official forecasts.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Japan 10-year","Nikkei 225"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official outlook or decision changes those official forecasts."}},{"id":"boj-2026-10-30-statement-on-monetary-policy","category":"rates","headline":"Official Japanese overnight rate held at around 1.25 percent, with one vote for 1.5 percent","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6895,"lon":139.6917,"officialDate":"2026-10-30","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:37:03.876Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 30 October 2026 the official Japanese policy board, by an 8-1 vote, kept the guideline that the uncollateralized overnight call rate remain at around 1.25 percent. The dissenting member proposed 1.5 percent. The same meeting raised the planned pace of official ETF sales to about 860 billion yen a year on a book-value basis, from about 330 billion, to take effect in January 2027.","couldFollow":"An official hold at 1.25 percent, together with a faster official ETF disposal path and one official vote already preferring 1.5 percent, may stay in focus for USD/JPY and Japanese government bonds until the next scheduled policy meeting. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official statement both restated the 1.25 percent call-rate guideline and set a higher official sales pace, rather than changing the policy rate itself.","watch":"Watch USD/JPY and Japanese government bonds against the next official policy meeting. Set this scenario aside if a later official decision changes the call-rate guideline or the ETF sales pace.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Japan 10-year","Nikkei 225"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official decision changes the call-rate guideline or the ETF sales pace."}},{"id":"snb-2026-10-30-2026-10-30-interim-results-of-the-swiss-national","category":"markets","headline":"The Swiss National Bank reported a profit of 44.2 billion francs for the first three quarters of 2026","place":"Zurich","lat":47.3769,"lon":8.5417,"officialDate":"2026-10-30","ingestedAt":"2026-10-30T06:15:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD/CHF","Swiss 10-year","XAUUSD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happenedLead":"The Swiss National Bank reported a profit of 44.2 billion francs for the first three quarters of 2026. Foreign-currency positions accounted for 43.3 billion francs of that, with a 1.2 billion franc valuation gain on gold.","happened":"The Swiss National Bank reported a profit of 44.2 billion francs for the first three quarters of 2026. Foreign-currency positions accounted for 43.3 billion francs of that result, with a 1.2 billion franc valuation gain on gold and 0.1 billion francs on Swiss franc positions. Interest and dividend income on foreign-currency holdings were 10.7 billion and 2.3 billion francs, against interest expenses of 0.7 billion. Price losses of 22.6 billion francs on interest-bearing paper were more than offset by 23.7 billion francs of price gains on equities and 29.8 billion francs of exchange-rate-related gains. Gold holdings were unchanged in volume and were valued at 112,118 francs per kilogram at the end of September, against 110,919 at the end of 2025. The Bank said the result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign-exchange and capital markets, so only provisional conclusions are possible for the annual result.","couldFollow":"The Swiss franc and gold may be watched into later official SNB communications and the 10 December monetary policy assessment, because a large quarterly profit sits beside the policy path. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official Q1–Q3 profit of 44.2 billion francs was driven mainly by foreign-currency positions, with only a small profit on Swiss franc positions.","watch":"The scheduled 10 December 2026 monetary policy assessment, and later official accounts toward the annual result.","marketsToWatch":["USD/CHF","Swiss 10-year","XAUUSD"],"kind":"SCENARIO"}},{"id":"ecb-mp-20261029","category":"rates","headline":"Euro-area key rates left unchanged as energy prices keep rising","place":"Frankfurt","lat":50.1109,"lon":8.6821,"officialDate":"2026-10-29","ingestedAt":"2026-10-29T13:15:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["EUR/USD","Bund","DAX","EUR/GBP"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 29 October 2026 the ECB Governing Council left its three key rates unchanged, at 2.50 percent on the deposit facility, 2.65 percent on main refinancing operations and 2.90 percent on the marginal lending facility. It said energy prices had continued to rise, posing upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Underlying inflation had remained broadly stable so far and wages had not shown a material response at that stage, while financing conditions had tightened since the previous meeting. The Council said it was not pre-committing to a particular rate path and would decide meeting by meeting. Holdings under the asset purchase and pandemic emergency programmes continue to decline, with no reinvestment of maturing principal.","couldFollow":"Euro rates, the euro and euro-area equities may stay sensitive to later official inflation and energy data, because the Council left the door open to a change without signalling a path. This is a scenario, not a trade idea.","because":"The official decision was a hold, but the accompanying assessment raised the inflation risk from energy and said financing conditions had already tightened.","marketsToWatch":["EUR/USD","Bund","DAX","EUR/GBP"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official Governing Council decision changes the three key rates, or if a formal correction is issued to the 29 October statement.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official Governing Council decision changes the three key rates, or if a formal correction is issued to the 29 October statement. Watch EUR/USD, Bund, DAX, EUR/GBP."}},{"id":"ecb-2026-10-29-christine-lagarde-boris-vuj-i-monetary-policy-st","category":"rates","headline":"Official euro-area inflation rose to 3.8 percent in September as energy prices kept rising","place":"Frankfurt","lat":50.1109,"lon":8.6821,"officialDate":"2026-10-29","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:37:03.308Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"The official 29 October policy statement said the three key official rates were left unchanged. It said inflation rose to 3.8 percent in September, from 3.2 percent in August, with a marked increase in energy-price inflation, and that the unemployment rate remained at 6.4 percent in August. The official text said energy prices continued to rise, posing upside risks to the inflation outlook and downside risks to the growth outlook.","couldFollow":"An official hold on key rates, alongside an official inflation print of 3.8 percent driven by energy, may stay in focus for EUR/USD and euro-area government bonds until the next official decision or inflation release. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official statement is the published record of both the unchanged official rates and the latest official inflation and unemployment figures cited at that meeting.","watch":"Watch EUR/USD and German government bonds against the next official rate decision and the next official inflation release. Set this scenario aside if a later official decision or print changes that record.","marketsToWatch":["EUR/USD","German 10-year","EUR"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official decision or print changes that record."}},{"id":"ecb-president-20261029","category":"rates","headline":"ECB president to leave office on 7 February 2027","place":"Frankfurt","lat":50.1109,"lon":8.6821,"officialDate":"2026-10-29","ingestedAt":"2026-10-29T14:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["EUR/USD","Bund","Euro Stoxx banks"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"On 29 October 2026 the president of the European Central Bank informed the Governing Council and the president of the European Council that she will step down on 7 February 2027. The official notice said a successor will be appointed by the European Council under the treaty process.","couldFollow":"The euro, euro-area government bonds and bank equities may react to later official news on the nomination and appointment, because leadership transitions can change how policy is communicated even when the rate framework is unchanged. This is a scenario, not a prediction of the successor or of a policy shift.","because":"The departure date is now an official, dated fact, and the appointment process itself will be a market-watched official event through early 2027.","marketsToWatch":["EUR/USD","Bund","Euro Stoxx banks"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official notice withdraws or changes the 7 February 2027 date, or alters the stated appointment process.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official notice withdraws or changes the 7 February 2027 date, or alters the stated appointment process. Watch EUR/USD, Bund, Euro Stoxx banks."}},{"id":"hmt-budget-20261028","category":"markets","headline":"The UK budget statement said debt-interest costs are 14 billion pounds higher this year","place":"London","lat":51.5142,"lon":-0.0931,"officialDate":"2026-10-28","ingestedAt":"2026-10-28T15:45:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["UK 10-year gilt","GBP/USD","Brent","FTSE 100"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"In the Budget 2026 speech on 28 October, the Chancellor said the official forecast now has the government spending 14 billion pounds more on debt interest this year, with government borrowing costs across the G7 reaching highs not seen for decades. The speech said oil had moved from around 70 dollars a barrel to well over 100 dollars, and that gas prices had nearly tripled since February, pushing inflation higher after it had been expected to fall back to the 2 percent target. It also said the official forecaster treats the Middle East conflict as a key driver of the forecasts, and that the government is working with allies to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.","couldFollow":"Gilts, sterling and UK equities may remain sensitive to later official debt-interest and energy-price revisions, because the budget itself treats higher official borrowing costs as a fiscal fact driven by the energy shock. This is a scenario, not a judgement on the wider tax package, which is not summarised here.","because":"The official speech ties a 14 billion pound increase in debt-interest costs this year to higher G7 borrowing costs and to oil and gas prices that have already moved sharply.","marketsToWatch":["UK 10-year gilt","GBP/USD","Brent","FTSE 100"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official forecast revises the 14 billion pound debt-interest figure, or if a formal correction is issued to the speech record.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official forecast revises the 14 billion pound debt-interest figure, or if a formal correction is issued to the speech record. Watch UK 10-year gilt, GBP/USD, Brent, FTSE 100."}},{"id":"fomc-20261028","category":"rates","headline":"US policy rate held in the 3.75–4.00 percent range, with two votes for a hike","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-10-28","ingestedAt":"2026-10-28T18:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["US 2-year","Fed funds futures","EUR/USD","USD/JPY","S&P 500","XAUUSD"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 28 October 2026 the Federal Open Market Committee kept the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent. The statement was approved 10–2. Two members preferred a quarter-point increase. The Committee said economic activity is expanding at a strong pace, the unemployment rate has changed little, and inflation remains elevated. It said more information would help it judge the stance needed for a timely return of inflation to its 2 percent goal. The implementation note directed operations to hold the funds rate in that same range.","couldFollow":"The next scheduled meeting is 8–9 December 2026, when updated projections are also due. Into that meeting, the 10–2 split on the day of the hold is a reason to watch whether later official communication leaves the range unchanged or moves it. This is a scenario, not a call to trade.","because":"The official statement left the setting unchanged while describing inflation as still elevated, and two voting members already wanted a tighter setting.","marketsToWatch":["US 2-year","Fed funds futures","EUR/USD","USD/JPY","S&P 500","XAUUSD"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official FOMC statement or implementation note changes the target range, or if a formal correction is issued to the 28 October record.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official FOMC statement or implementation note changes the target range, or if a formal correction is issued to the 28 October record. Watch US 2-year, Fed funds futures, EUR/USD, USD/JPY."}},{"id":"boc-fad-20261028","category":"rates","headline":"Canada raised its overnight rate by a quarter point to 2.50 percent","place":"Ottawa","lat":45.4215,"lon":-75.6972,"officialDate":"2026-10-28","ingestedAt":"2026-10-28T13:45:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD/CAD","Canada 10-year","S&P/TSX","WTI"],"assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","centralBanks","energy"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 28 October 2026 the Bank of Canada raised its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, to 2.50 percent, with the Bank Rate at 2.75 percent and the deposit rate at 2.45 percent. It said Canadian CPI inflation had been around 3 percent since April and was expected to rise to about 3.5 percent by the end of the year. Inflation excluding gasoline was 2.2 percent in September, and core measures remained close to 2 percent, while cost pressures were building from high fuel prices. GDP grew 3.3 percent in the second quarter, with indicators pointing to about 2 percent in the third, stronger than the July projection. The Bank projected Canadian growth of 1 percent in 2026 and 2 percent in 2027 and 2028, with a slowing in the fourth quarter tied to new US tariffs. The next scheduled rate announcement is 9 December 2026.","couldFollow":"The Canadian dollar, Canada government bonds and Canadian equities may reprice around the higher official rate and around the published inflation path toward about 3.5 percent by year-end. The 9 December announcement is the next scheduled official point of confirmation or change. This is a scenario, not advice.","because":"The official record is a hike, and it ties that hike to inflation that has already been running around 3 percent and is projected to move higher in the near term, even as core measures stay close to 2 percent.","marketsToWatch":["USD/CAD","Canada 10-year","S&P/TSX","WTI"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official announcement changes the overnight rate target, or if a formal correction is issued to the 28 October release.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official announcement changes the overnight rate target, or if a formal correction is issued to the 28 October release. Watch USD/CAD, Canada 10-year, S&P/TSX, WTI."}},{"id":"rbnz-ocr-20261028","category":"rates","headline":"New Zealand official cash rate held at 2.75 percent","place":"Wellington","lat":-41.2865,"lon":174.7762,"officialDate":"2026-10-28","ingestedAt":"2026-10-27T11:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["NZD/USD","AUD/NZD","NZ 10-year"],"assets":["fx"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"High","briefing":{"happened":"On 28 October 2026 the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.75 percent, and published the Monetary Policy Committee’s record of the meeting with the policy review.","couldFollow":"The New Zealand dollar and local rates may stay sensitive to later official inflation and labour-market releases, because the cash rate was held rather than moved. This is a scenario, not a view on the next decision.","because":"The official action was a hold at 2.75 percent, so later official data will be the next scheduled input to that setting.","marketsToWatch":["NZD/USD","AUD/NZD","NZ 10-year"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official OCR announcement changes the 2.75 percent setting, or if a formal correction is issued to the 28 October release.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official OCR announcement changes the 2.75 percent setting, or if a formal correction is issued to the 28 October release. Watch NZD/USD, AUD/NZD, NZ 10-year.","happenedLead":"The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left the official cash rate unchanged at 2.75 percent on 28 October 2026. It published the Monetary Policy Committee’s record of the meeting with the policy review."}},{"id":"doe-nuclear-20261027","category":"energy","headline":"A conditional 5 billion dollar official loan was offered for nuclear uprates in three US states","place":"Washington","lat":38.8977,"lon":-77.0365,"officialDate":"2026-10-27","ingestedAt":"2026-10-27T16:00:00Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["Uranium","US utility equities"],"assets":["indices","commodities"],"layers":["events","energy"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"On 27 October 2026 the US Energy Department announced a conditional loan commitment of up to 5 billion dollars to finance nuclear uprates and modernisation at Constellation plants in Illinois, Maryland and Pennsylvania, with the stated aim of boosting nuclear power and helping to lower costs.","couldFollow":"If the official commitment is later finalised and the uprates proceed, additional nuclear megawatts would be a later factor for regional power prices and for uranium demand. This is a scenario, not a plant-by-plant output forecast, and the loan is still conditional.","because":"The official record is a large, conditional financing offer aimed at expanding existing nuclear output, not a completed generation increase.","marketsToWatch":["Uranium","US utility equities"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official notice withdraws the commitment, or if later official filings show the uprates did not go ahead.","watch":"Set this scenario aside if a later official notice withdraws the commitment, or if later official filings show the uprates did not go ahead. Watch Uranium, US utility equities."}},{"id":"boj-2026-10-26-services-producer-price-index-sept","category":"markets","headline":"Official Japanese services producer prices rose 3.7 percent on the year in September","place":"Tokyo","lat":35.6895,"lon":139.6917,"officialDate":"2026-10-26","ingestedAt":"2026-11-12T15:37:04.097Z","truthState":"OFFICIAL_RECORD","coding":"OFFICIAL","markets":["USD","US 2-year","EUR/USD"],"assets":["fx","indices"],"layers":["events","centralBanks"],"impact":"Med","briefing":{"happened":"Official preliminary figures released on 27 October showed the services producer price index for all items at 115.5 in September (2020 equals 100), up 3.7 percent on the year and 0.3 percent on the month. Excluding international transportation, the yearly rise was 2.9 percent and the monthly rise was 0.2 percent.","couldFollow":"A still-firm official yearly rise in services producer prices may stay in focus for USD/JPY and for official Japanese inflation analysis until the next official monthly print. This is a scenario, not a forecast.","because":"The official September preliminary print is the latest published monthly record for this series in this snapshot.","watch":"Watch USD/JPY against the next official services producer price release. Set this scenario aside if a later official print or revision changes the yearly rate.","marketsToWatch":["USD/JPY","Japan 10-year"],"kind":"SCENARIO","invalidation":"Set this scenario aside if a later official print or revision changes the yearly rate."}}],"upcoming":[{"id":"up-canada-cpi-20261116","headline":"Official Canadian consumer prices for October","when":"2026-11-16T13:30:00Z","whenLabel":"16 Nov, 08:30 ET","place":"Ottawa","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["USD/CAD","Canada 2-year"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-rba-minutes-20261117","headline":"Official Australian November policy-meeting minutes","when":"2026-11-17T00:30:00Z","whenLabel":"17 Nov, 11:30 AEDT","place":"Sydney","impact":"High","assets":["fx"],"markets":["AUD","USD/AUD"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-import-prices-20261117","headline":"Official US import and export price indexes","when":"2026-11-17T13:30:00Z","whenLabel":"17 Nov, 08:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"Med","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["USD","US 2-year"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-retail-20261117","headline":"Official advance US retail sales","when":"2026-11-17T13:30:00Z","whenLabel":"17 Nov, 08:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["USD","S&P 500","US 2-year"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-g17-20261117","headline":"Official US industrial production and capacity use","when":"2026-11-17T14:15:00Z","whenLabel":"17 Nov, 09:15 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices","commodities"],"markets":["USD","S&P 500","WTI"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-wpsr-20261118","headline":"Official weekly US petroleum inventories","when":"2026-11-18T15:30:00Z","whenLabel":"18 Nov, 10:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["commodities"],"markets":["WTI","Brent","RBOB"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-fomc-minutes-20261118","headline":"Minutes of the 27–28 October US policy meeting","when":"2026-11-18T19:00:00Z","whenLabel":"18 Nov, 14:00 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["Fed funds","US 2-year","USD"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-claims-20261119","headline":"Official weekly US jobless claims","when":"2026-11-19T13:30:00Z","whenLabel":"19 Nov, 08:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"Med","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["US 2-year","USD"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"up-gas-20261119","headline":"Official weekly US natural gas storage","when":"2026-11-19T15:30:00Z","whenLabel":"19 Nov, 10:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"Med","assets":["commodities"],"markets":["Henry Hub"],"window":"next7","note":"Scheduled official weekly release. The print is not yet published."},{"id":"later-beige-20261125","headline":"Official US Beige Book","when":"2026-11-25T19:00:00Z","whenLabel":"25 Nov","place":"Washington","impact":"Med","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["USD","Fed funds"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-opec-20261129","headline":"Scheduled OPEC+ ministerial meeting","when":"2026-11-29T12:00:00Z","whenLabel":"29 Nov","place":"Vienna","impact":"High","assets":["commodities","fx"],"markets":["Brent","WTI","USD/CAD"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-nfp-20261204","headline":"Official US employment report","when":"2026-12-04T13:30:00Z","whenLabel":"4 Dec, 08:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["USD","S&P 500","Fed funds"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-fomc-20261208","headline":"Scheduled US policy meeting, with updated projections","when":"2026-12-09T19:00:00Z","whenLabel":"8–9 Dec","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["Fed funds","US 2-year","USD"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-snb-mp-20261210","headline":"Scheduled Swiss policy assessment","when":"2026-12-10T07:30:00Z","whenLabel":"10 Dec","place":"Zurich","impact":"High","assets":["fx"],"markets":["USD/CHF","Swiss 10-year"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-cpi-20261210","headline":"Official US consumer prices","when":"2026-12-10T13:30:00Z","whenLabel":"10 Dec, 08:30 ET","place":"Washington","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["USD","US 2-year"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-snb-di-20261211","headline":"Official Swiss direct investment, 2025","when":"2026-12-11T07:00:00Z","whenLabel":"11 Dec","place":"Zurich","impact":"Med","assets":["fx"],"markets":["USD/CHF"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-snb-qb-20261216","headline":"Official Swiss quarterly bulletin","when":"2026-12-16T13:00:00Z","whenLabel":"16 Dec","place":"Zurich","impact":"Med","assets":["fx"],"markets":["USD/CHF"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-boe-20261217","headline":"Scheduled UK Bank Rate decision","when":"2026-12-17T12:00:00Z","whenLabel":"17 Dec, 12:00 UK","place":"London","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["GBP","Gilts"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-ecb-20261217","headline":"Scheduled euro-area policy meeting","when":"2026-12-17T13:15:00Z","whenLabel":"16–17 Dec","place":"Frankfurt","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["EUR/USD","Bund"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-boj-20261218","headline":"Scheduled Japan policy meeting","when":"2026-12-18T03:00:00Z","whenLabel":"17–18 Dec","place":"Tokyo","impact":"High","assets":["fx"],"markets":["USD/JPY","JGBs"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-uk-gdp-20261222","headline":"Official UK GDP release","when":"2026-12-22T07:00:00Z","whenLabel":"22 Dec","place":"London","impact":"High","assets":["fx","indices"],"markets":["GBP","Gilts"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."},{"id":"later-snb-bop-20261222","headline":"Official Swiss balance of payments","when":"2026-12-22T07:00:00Z","whenLabel":"22 Dec","place":"Zurich","impact":"Med","assets":["fx"],"markets":["USD/CHF"],"window":"later","note":"Scheduled official date, after this week’s window."}],"moneyFlow":{"forex":{"label":"Official daily reference","note":"Official daily US-dollar reference rates, not a live FX tape. The date is the last working day carried by the official feed.","asOf":"2026-11-13","base":"USD","current":true,"rows":[{"pair":"USD/AUD","value":1.4738,"asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"pair":"USD/CAD","value":1.4258,"asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"pair":"USD/CHF","value":0.8384,"asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"pair":"USD/EUR","value":0.90481,"asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"pair":"USD/GBP","value":0.75605,"asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"pair":"USD/JPY","value":160,"asOf":"2026-11-13"}]},"rates":{"label":"Official daily Treasury par yields","note":"Official US Treasury daily par yield curve, not a live tape. Yields are in percent per year.","asOf":"2026-11-13","current":true,"stale":false,"rows":[{"name":"US 3-month","value":4.32,"unit":"%","asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"name":"US 1-year","value":4.65,"unit":"%","asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"name":"US 2-year","value":4.88,"unit":"%","asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"name":"US 10-year","value":5.15,"unit":"%","asOf":"2026-11-13"},{"name":"US 30-year","value":5.47,"unit":"%","asOf":"2026-11-13"}]},"commodities":{"label":"Official daily spots","note":"Official delayed daily energy spot prices, not a live futures tape. Figures are in US dollars.","asOf":"2026-11-11","current":true,"stale":false,"rows":[{"name":"WTI","value":89.62,"unit":"USD/bbl","asOf":"2026-11-11"},{"name":"Brent","value":92.14,"unit":"USD/bbl","asOf":"2026-11-11"},{"name":"Henry Hub gas","value":3,"unit":"USD/MMBtu","asOf":"2026-11-11"}]},"stocks":{"comingSoon":true,"label":"Coming soon","note":"A delayed equity tape will appear here once a licence-safe source is in place."}},"counts":{"events":45,"upcomingNext7":9,"upcomingLater":13},"gaps":["This snapshot is a curated set of official records, not a firehose of every headline.","Items with official titles but too little official text to brief without inventing facts are held in an internal review queue and are not shown.","A licence-safe delayed equity tape is not available, so an Indices quotes tab is not shown."]}